How to Bet on Soccer
Soccer, particularly at the club level, has a complex system of competitions all with rules, formats and importance to the teams competing in them. If you are new to soccer betting be sure to also check out our soccer betting guide. Bettors who are new to the sport can often find the incentives created by this system confusing and frustrating. Below we’ve listed some tips on how to analyze a match before placing a bet to help you navigate this unique landscape. While these tips are not a substitute for a full betting model, we hope they will help you become a more informed bettor, as well as gain a deeper understanding of the beautiful game.
Check The Lineups
This is something you should be doing for all sports but in soccer especially, the lineups can provide insight into how each manager is approaching the game. Since soccer competitions generally only allow for a total of 3 substitutions to be made throughout the match, you can infer a lot about each manager’s approach by looking over the lineups which are typically released 1 hour prior to kickoff. Don’t worry if you don’t have an intimate knowledge of each player’s strengths and weaknesses, there are two simple things you can look for when reviewing the lineups. First you want to check if each team’s star offensive players are in the starting lineup or available as a substitute. To identify the offensive players check the team’s players stats for their goals and assists leaders. If you want to take this a step further there are a number of 3rd party websites who evaluate players on a number of additional metrics, we like the Who Scored player ratings. The absence of these star players usually indicates a decrease in that team’s expected offensive output. The second thing you want to check is the experience and age of the players in the lineup. There are a number of times throughout the season where teams playing in multiple competitions will give their more experienced players a rest while giving their younger players an opportunity to get some experience. This is most common in the early rounds of domestic cups. You should always assume that a team that rotates in their younger less experienced players still expects to win with this lineup, however we can expect a reduced performance compared to their typical starting lineup.
Check Each Team’s Form
Form, or how a team has performed recently, can provide good insight into the strength of each team coming into the game. While you can look at how a team has performed across all competitions, we find it’s usually best to evaluate their performance within the competition you plan to wager on. Since team performance can vary substantially between matches played at home and away, you may want to evaluate the form of the home team when playing at home and the away team when playing away. Finally it’s important to look at each team’s opponent in their recent games when determining how much weight to put into this analysis. For example if a mid table team lost 4 of their last 5 away matches all to top 5 teams, you may want to evaluate how they performed in those games beyond just the outcome.
Understand The Competition You’re Betting On
This should go without saying for all sports but is especially important in soccer as playing styles and rules can vary from competition to competition. The average number of yellow cards and goals for a league or team is a good starting point to get a feel for the style of play, with higher yellow cards and lower average goals generally being an indication of a more physical and defensive league, while lower cards and higher goals will be an indication of a more open and free flowing offensive style of play.
Will Games End In A Draw Or Go To Extra Time
The most important thing to understand before placing a bet is whether the competition allows games to end in a draw or will go to extra time and a shootout to determine a winner. Generally speaking domestic leagues and international competitions in the group stage will end in a draw while cup competitions and playoffs will go to extra time. This is important to understand before placing a bet so that you can ensure that you are betting on the correct market for your predicted outcome.
What Are Each Team’s Motivations
While we can generally assume each team comes into each game with the intention of winning, the structure of soccer competitions can create scenarios where a win does not have equal value to both teams. While this will never result in a team losing a game on purpose (as that is illegal and closely monitored) it can change a teams strategy for a particular game. Lets take a look at a couple examples of situations to be on the lookout for.
Promotion/Relegation
A unique component of soccer compared to US sports is the promotion and relegation system. US sports leagues function as a closed league, where the same teams compete in the same league year in and year out. In soccer the teams in each league are always changing thanks to the promotion and relegation system. In this system teams who finish at the top of the league move up into a higher league and teams who finish at the bottom drop into a lower league. Towards the end of the season it is common for teams on the verge of being promoted or relegated to play teams in the middle of the standings. Since a win can secure promotion or the avoidance of relegation for one team but means relatively little to their opponent, it is important to be aware of this mismatch of incentives before placing a bet on the game.
Group Stages of Competitions
There are some cup competitions that begin with what’s known as a group stage. The typical structure of this involves all the participating teams being divided into groups of 4 teams, the teams in each group play each other one or two times each, with the top two teams advancing to the knockout stage. Towards the end of this stage it is common for a team to enter a game knowing ahead of time that they can advance to the knockout stage by either winning or drawing, which can lead to them playing a more conservative style than they normally would.
This is by no means an exhaustive list of things to consider before placing a bet, and as we said this is not a substitute for a full betting model, but evaluating some or all of these criteria before placing a bet will make you a more informed soccer bettor.