Mega Millions Expected Value
Is a Mega Millions ticket worth buying? See the EV per dollar, breakeven jackpot, and tier-by-tier contribution breakdown.
$
$500.0M advertised jackpot
%
$
Expected Value Per Ticket
-$1.20
-59.8% return per dollar
EV Per Ticket
-$1.20
EV Per Dollar
-59.8%
Breakeven Jackpot
$834.2M
EV Indicator
-100%0% (breakeven)+50%
Prize Tier Breakdown
| Tier | Odds | Prize (After Tax) | EV Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 + PBJACKPOT | 1 in 292,201,338 | $176.26M | $0.6032 |
| 5 | 1 in 11,688,054 | $630,000 | $0.0539 |
| 4 + PB | 1 in 913,129 | $31,500 | $0.0345 |
| 4 | 1 in 36,525 | $63.00 | $0.0017 |
| 3 + PB | 1 in 14,494 | $63.00 | $0.0043 |
| 3 | 1 in 580 | $4.41 | $0.0076 |
| 2 + PB | 1 in 701 | $4.41 | $0.0063 |
| 1 + PB | 1 in 92 | $2.52 | $0.0274 |
| PB only | 1 in 38 | $2.52 | $0.0658 |
| Total EV | -$1.20 |
Looking for better expected value?
Prediction markets offer better expected value than lottery tickets. Track odds across platforms on our dashboard.