Hedge Calculator
Calculate optimal hedge stakes with an interactive slider. See profit scenarios for both outcomes and find the right balance between risk and guaranteed return.
Original Bet
Hedge Bet
Hedge Ratio50%
No Hedge (0%)Equal Profit (50%)Full Hedge (100%)
Frequently Asked Questions
What is hedging a bet?
Hedging means placing a second bet on the opposite outcome of your original wager to guarantee a profit or minimize potential losses. It is most commonly used when your original bet has moved significantly in your favor and you want to lock in some or all of the gain.
When should I hedge a bet?
Hedge when the potential payout from your original bet justifies giving up some upside for downside protection. Common scenarios include futures bets that reach the final, parlays with one leg remaining, and prediction market positions where the price has moved substantially in your direction.
What does the hedge ratio slider do?
The slider controls how much of your exposure to hedge. At 0% you place no hedge bet. At 50% you get roughly equal profit regardless of outcome. At 100% you maximize the guaranteed minimum profit by betting the full calculated hedge amount.
How is the hedge stake calculated?
For a full equal-profit hedge: calculate the total return from your original bet (stake × decimal odds), then divide by the hedge decimal odds. This gives the hedge stake that equalizes your profit in both scenarios. The slider scales this linearly from 0% to 100%.
Can I hedge prediction market positions?
Yes. If you hold YES contracts at 40¢ and the price has risen to 70¢, you can sell your contracts (equivalent to hedging) or buy NO contracts on another platform. Enter the original and hedge odds in PM Cents format (e.g., 40¢ and 30¢).
Does hedging guarantee a profit?
Hedging can guarantee a profit only if the combined conditions are right: your original bet must have positive expected value at the time of hedging, and the hedge odds must be favorable enough. The calculator shows both scenarios so you can verify before placing the hedge.
What is the difference between hedging and arbitrage?
Hedging is reactive: you have an existing position and place a second bet to protect it. Arbitrage is proactive: you simultaneously place bets on all outcomes across different bookmakers to guarantee profit from the start, exploiting pricing discrepancies between platforms.
Should I hedge my futures bet?
It depends on your risk tolerance and the odds available. If hedging locks in a meaningful profit relative to your original stake and you value certainty over maximum upside, hedging makes sense. Use this calculator to see the exact profit under each scenario before deciding.