Lottery EV Calculator
Calculate the expected value of Powerball and Mega Millions tickets. See EV per dollar, breakeven jackpot, and why lottery tickets are almost always -EV.
Prize Tier Breakdown
| Tier | Odds | Prize (After Tax) | EV Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 + PBJACKPOT | 1 in 292,201,338 | $176.26M | $0.6032 |
| 5 | 1 in 11,688,054 | $630,000 | $0.0539 |
| 4 + PB | 1 in 913,129 | $31,500 | $0.0345 |
| 4 | 1 in 36,525 | $63.00 | $0.0017 |
| 3 + PB | 1 in 14,494 | $63.00 | $0.0043 |
| 3 | 1 in 580 | $4.41 | $0.0076 |
| 2 + PB | 1 in 701 | $4.41 | $0.0063 |
| 1 + PB | 1 in 92 | $2.52 | $0.0274 |
| PB only | 1 in 38 | $2.52 | $0.0658 |
| Total EV | -$1.20 |
How Is Lottery Expected Value Calculated?
Expected value sums each prize tier's value multiplied by its probability, then subtracts the ticket cost. For the jackpot tier, we apply tax deductions and divide by the estimated number of co-winners. The result tells you how much each $2 ticket is actually worth on average. A negative EV means you lose money long-term.
Are Prediction Markets a Better Bet?
Prediction markets typically offer much better expected value than lottery tickets. While lottery EV ranges from -$1.50 to -$1.90 per $2 ticket, prediction market traders can find +EV opportunities by identifying mispriced contracts. Track real-time odds across platforms on the Odds Reference dashboard.
The Breakeven Jackpot Myth
Many articles cite a "breakeven jackpot" around $585M. This ignores two critical factors: taxes reduce the after-tax value by 37-50%, and co-winner probability increases with jackpot size. After accounting for both, no historical jackpot has ever been truly +EV.