Pick'em Bankroll Calculator

Calculate optimal entry sizing for PrizePicks, Underdog, and Pick6 using the Kelly Criterion. See recommended entry size, daily budget, and weekly EV projections.

$
%
Recommended Entry Size
$1.00
per entry (0.00% of bankroll)
Daily Budget
$3.00
0.6% of bankroll
Max Single Entry
$15.00
3% cap
Weekly EV
$-1.78
Monthly EV
$-7.64

Bankroll Guidelines

•Never risk more than 3% of your bankroll on a single entry
•Daily budget: $3.00 across 3 entries
•Negative EV at this hit rate — reduce sizing or improve your hit rate
•A $500 bankroll supports entries up to $15.00

Why Bankroll Management Matters in Pick'em

Even with positive expected value, poor sizing can deplete your bankroll before variance works in your favor. A 55% per-leg hit rate on 4-pick Power Play entries has a positive edge, but you will only win about 9% of entries. Long losing streaks are expected. The Kelly Criterion ensures your entry sizing matches your edge while protecting against ruin.

How the Calculator Works

Enter your bankroll, preferred platform and entry type, your estimated hit rate, and risk tolerance. The calculator applies fractional Kelly Criterion to recommend an entry size that maximizes long-term growth while keeping ruin probability low. Daily budget projections help you plan your total daily action.

Conservative vs Aggressive Sizing

Conservative sizing (quarter-Kelly) means smaller entries and slower bankroll growth, but much greater protection against drawdowns. Aggressive sizing (half-Kelly) grows your bankroll faster when winning but requires a larger bankroll to absorb the inevitable losing streaks. Start conservative and only increase after building a track record.

Frequently Asked Questions

How big of a bankroll do I need for pick'em?
A minimum of $200-300 is recommended for consistent play. At conservative sizing (2% per entry), a $300 bankroll supports $6 entries. A $1,000 bankroll supports $20-30 entries depending on risk tolerance. The calculator adapts recommendations to your specific bankroll.
How much should I bet on PrizePicks per entry?
Use the Kelly Criterion adapted for pick'em: bet a fraction of your bankroll proportional to your edge. At conservative risk with a 55% hit rate on 4-pick Power Play, the recommended entry size is approximately 1-3% of your bankroll per entry.
What percentage of my bankroll should I play per day?
Conservative: 5-8% of bankroll per day across all entries. Moderate: 8-15%. Aggressive: up to 20%. The daily budget equals your recommended entry size multiplied by your entries per day. Never chase losses by exceeding your daily budget.
What is the Kelly Criterion for pick'em?
Kelly Criterion calculates optimal bet sizing based on your edge. For all-or-nothing entries: Kelly % = (p × multiplier - 1) / (multiplier - 1), where p is your probability of winning. Most players use fractional Kelly (25-50% of full Kelly) to reduce variance.
Should I use conservative or aggressive sizing?
Conservative sizing protects your bankroll through inevitable losing streaks. Even with a 55% hit rate, 10+ entry losing streaks happen. Aggressive sizing maximizes growth when you have a proven edge but risks significant drawdowns. Start conservative until you have 200+ tracked entries.
How many entries should I play per day?
Quality over quantity. Playing 2-4 high-confidence entries is better than 10 marginal entries. Your total daily action should not exceed your daily budget limit regardless of how many entries you make. The calculator adjusts recommendations for your preferred entry count.
What is risk of ruin in pick'em?
Risk of ruin is the probability of losing your entire bankroll. With proper Kelly sizing and positive EV, risk of ruin approaches zero over time. With aggressive sizing or negative EV, ruin probability increases significantly. Conservative sizing keeps ruin probability below 5%.
When should I move up in entry size?
Increase entry size when your bankroll grows, not when you feel confident. If your bankroll doubles, your recommended entry size doubles automatically since it is a percentage of bankroll. Never increase sizing to recover from losses.

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